Will the conflict between Hamas and Israel degenerate into an all-out war that would spread to the rest of the region and possibly the world? The provisional answer to this question is no. Or, in any case, that the chances of the conflict spreading decrease every day. Public opinion is certainly shaken by the horrors of war that are told in the media. In the Muslim camp, they translate into a feeling of solidarity and anger. Among Israel’s allies, they oscillate between deep disgust inspired by Hamas’ inhumane attacks and a desire to spare the lives of innocent Palestinians. For now, status reasons trump all other considerations and that’s much better. That’s what should be read between the lines of Friday’s speech by Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
1) What did the Hezbollah leader say?
Three things should be learned from the Hezbollah leader’s speech. The first is that Hezbollah claims that the October 7 Hamas attack was 100% Palestinian. A way of saying that Hezbollah was not involved in this attack. Second, Nasrallah believes that the war against Hamas could turn into an all-out war. How? He does not explain exactly, but says that the evolution of the actions of the Israeli army will decide. Finally, the leader of Hezbollah launched a series of accusations against the United States. Not only would they be responsible for the war, but they would also prevent the Israeli army from stopping its attack on Gaza. These last claims are contradicted by the facts. In fact, they intend to stir up hatred against the United States. If Hezbollah were to attack Israel with all its forces, it probably would have done so sooner. Hezbollah warns against the all-out war it doesn’t seem to want. It must be understood that Hezbollah is viewed very badly in Lebanon and that a war with Israel could lead to the destruction of the organization.
2) What is Iran’s interest?
Iran probably has atomic weapons. In this sense, he is less afraid than before the military attacks. Also, the Iranian population has risen up against their leaders. She probably wouldn’t follow them into a war, unless the country was attacked. With an unstable economy, Iran has no interest in an all-out war.
3) What is Israel’s interest?
Israel must pacify its borders, both the internal ones with Gaza and the West Bank, as well as the external ones with its neighbors. The method to pacify these borders is not unanimous among Israelis. The religious extremists, who are in power with Benjamin Netanyahu, believe that this pacification involves the colonization of Palestinian territories and even neighboring territories. It is actually a logic of war that only leads to other wars. However, if only for reasons of low birth rates, Israel needs peace, not all-out war.
4) What is the interest of the United States?
Contrary to what its enemies claim, the United States has an interest in a stable region. The war threatens the commercial interests of the United States and its allies, except for weapons. Washington does not want an all-out war.
5) What is the interest of the Palestinians?
The Palestinians must have an independent state to finally prosper. A total war would decimate them and its outcome would be uncertain.