Here it is obvious: Quebec solidaire has been stuck in the waters of 15% since 2018.
Here is the lucid observation: Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois acknowledged that the election results did not live up to expectations.
Here’s the lowdown: GND tells us it will think about its future, after 2026.
For QS, this would be catastrophic. GND, like Mr. Legault, consolidates his party.
It professionalises it, at least. His notoriety and popularity – nearly 45% of Quebecers have a good opinion of him – show that he is the best asset for his party.
GND may not have succeeded in growing his party, but we can also reverse the argument: he consolidated his support, while the CAQ destroyed everything.
Without him, QS could easily be torn apart by the various currents running through the game.
That said, GND is not without reproach.
In form: Remains bogged down in “anti-Legault”. Fiercely attacking the prime minister at every step and on all issues, he comes to reject the popular positions of the CAQ, and opens the way to dissatisfaction with the Legault government. Dissatisfaction that benefits the PSPP today.
On the bottom line: Nadeau-Dubois sometimes seems to avoid questioning the underlying reasons for her party’s stagnation.
Let’s forget for a few minutes the orange tax, which certainly had an effect, but which is not the only reason for the solidarity spleen.
There is another elephant in the room, called “independence”.
Supporters of solidarity are often accused of being part-time separatists. An “interim independence” between two left-wing proposals, in short.
I wanted to go deeper into this matter.
And for a sovereignist party, an examination of conscience arises.
According to Léger’s latest poll, only 35% of solidarity voters declare themselves independent.
There is a fundamental disagreement between Solidarity MPs and their base on this, which they will not always be able to avoid.
Another question, even more revealing: should the party promote independence more? On this point, it is clear: only 14% of solidarity voters want him to promote independence more, while 41% want QS to talk less about it.
The question of independence also inevitably rhymes with nationalism.
On each of the issues that embody nationalism – language, immigration, secularism, the protection of Quebec in Canada – the solidarity positions are the opposite of the majority of Quebecers.
It is increasingly difficult for supporters to keep up.
The next spokesperson
With the region/city divide, the race to succeed Manon Massé pretty well embodies the failure of independence. We can already rule out the notoriety of the candidates: none is really known and stands out from the others.
Christine Labrie embodies a kind of Manon Massé 2.0, a social conscience that the party already possesses.
Émilise Lessard-Therrien wants to develop a regional left.
Ruba Ghazal wants to be the bearer of a more nationalist and more sovereignist line. Something like a “national left”.
I look at this poll, and the results are not encouraging for her and for all pro-independence supporters.